Market Update

Global – Macro slowdown or recession? Volatility in global markets epitomised the fourth quarter of 2018 as investors’ sentiments were tested with mixed data amidst increased geopolitical concerns surrounding the trade standoff between the US and China, weakening Chinese economy, and the possibility of a hard Brexit landing. October saw the sharpest one month decline since May 2012, with the MSCI World shedding -7.3% with Emerging Markets eclipsing the fall tabling at -8.7%. November provided a brief respite and recovery, only for December to table a -7.6% fall as the US fell 9.0% – despite US jobs data exceeding 3% for the first time since April 2009. A key measure of US inflation picked up as expected in November on rising costs for housing, medical care and used cars, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates.  ... Read More

Global – A Trump / Xi reconciliation? In November, US equities began on a very positive note with economic data continuing to impress. US payrolls added an above expectation 250,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.7% and the hourly wage gaining 3.1% year-on-year. The midterm election results were as expected, with the Democrats gaining control of Congress – hence the results had little impact on the overall market. In spite of the positive economic data suggesting that the Federal Reserve might be inclined to put a foot on the brake, Chairman Powell surprised market pundits by adopting a more dovish approach and suggesting that additional interest rate hikes might be limited. Read the full article Domestic: 2019 – hopefully a new dawn? The local market struggled to find direction with the US/China trade spat continuing to weigh... Read More

Global – A Trump / Xi reconciliation? In November, US equities began on a very positive note with economic data continuing to impress. US payrolls added an above expectation 250,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.7% and the hourly wage gaining 3.1% year-on-year. The midterm election results were as expected, with the Democrats gaining control of Congress – hence the results had little impact on the overall market. In spite of the positive economic data suggesting that the Federal Reserve might be inclined to put a foot on the brake, Chairman Powell surprised market pundits by adopting a more dovish approach and suggesting that additional interest rate hikes might be limited. Read the full article Domestic: 2019 – hopefully a new dawn? The local market struggled to find direction with the US/China trade spat continuing to weigh... Read More

Global – Stretched IT valuations Persistent rhetoric from the Trump administration regarding US/China trade relations, coupled with concerns over the durability of the economic cycle, resulted in a sharp sell-off of US equities. The softer earnings from tech giants Alphabet and Amazon seemed to initially confirm this, but subsequent earnings numbers suggest that strong corporate earnings momentum remains intact. In line with other global equity markets, Eurozone equities experienced a significant sell-off with the MSCI EMU Index down -6.5%. Economic data continued to point to a slowdown in the region, with Q3 GDP down to 0.2% from Q2’s 0.4%. Furthermore, PMI for October came in at 52.7 from September’s 54.1 and was at an almost two year low. The European Central Bank maintained its monetary policy with the target for a cessation of asset purchases still the aim for year... Read More

Global – Stretched IT valuations Persistent rhetoric from the Trump administration regarding US/China trade relations, coupled with concerns over the durability of the economic cycle, resulted in a sharp sell-off of US equities. The softer earnings from tech giants Alphabet and Amazon seemed to initially confirm this, but subsequent earnings numbers suggest that strong corporate earnings momentum remains intact. In line with other global equity markets, Eurozone equities experienced a significant sell-off with the MSCI EMU Index down -6.5%. Economic data continued to point to a slowdown in the region, with Q3 GDP down to 0.2% from Q2’s 0.4%. Furthermore, PMI for October came in at 52.7 from September’s 54.1 and was at an almost two year low. The European Central Bank maintained its monetary policy with the target for a cessation of asset purchases still the aim for year... Read More

Global: The US market continues to forge ahead. In spite of global geopolitical uncertainties, the US market continued to forge ahead. Economic data remained robust with Q2 GDP advancing to 4.2% on an annualised quarterly basis, which was at the fastest rate in four years. Consumer spending continued apace and this, coupled with lowered taxes and government spending, were the main catalysts for the renewed growth. Read the full article Domestic: FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns 2.5% for the month A considerably weaker Rand down 10.6% allied to an improvement in both resource and industrial counters, resulted in the FTSE/JSE All Share Index outperforming global markets and returning 2.5% for the month. In spite of weakening commodity prices, the FTSE/JSE Resources Index returned 5% while the Industrial Index returned 1.8%. Listed property continued to improve, returning 2.1% for the month. Read... Read More

Global: The US market continues to forge ahead. In spite of global geopolitical uncertainties, the US market continued to forge ahead. Economic data remained robust with Q2 GDP advancing to 4.2% on an annualised quarterly basis, which was at the fastest rate in four years. Consumer spending continued apace and this, coupled with lowered taxes and government spending, were the main catalysts for the renewed growth. Read the full article Domestic: FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns 2.5% for the month A considerably weaker Rand down 10.6% allied to an improvement in both resource and industrial counters, resulted in the FTSE/JSE All Share Index outperforming global markets and returning 2.5% for the month. In spite of weakening commodity prices, the FTSE/JSE Resources Index returned 5% while the Industrial Index returned 1.8%. Listed property continued to improve, returning 2.1% for the month. Read... Read More

Global: First shots fired in the trade war! US equities continued to improve as employment numbers were indicative of a growing economy, and earnings results were ahead of expectations. The US June nonfarm payrolls added 213,000 new jobs, far outweighing expectations of 195,000, while May’s employment numbers were also revised upwards. Although concerns remained over the Trump administration’s proposed punitive trade taris, an indication later in the month that the US, China and Europe were prepared to renegotiate trade terms also helped improve market sentiment. The oil price registered a sharp decline as OPEC and Russia announced an increase in supply. Read the full article Domestic: Slow road ahead. South African equities failed to follow global markets higher in July, as the local economy remained in the doldrums and a rming of the Rand in the latter part of the... Read More

Global: First shots fired in the trade war! US equities continued to improve as employment numbers were indicative of a growing economy, and earnings results were ahead of expectations. The US June nonfarm payrolls added 213,000 new jobs, far outweighing expectations of 195,000, while May’s employment numbers were also revised upwards. Although concerns remained over the Trump administration’s proposed punitive trade taris, an indication later in the month that the US, China and Europe were prepared to renegotiate trade terms also helped improve market sentiment. The oil price registered a sharp decline as OPEC and Russia announced an increase in supply. Read the full article Domestic: Slow road ahead. South African equities failed to follow global markets higher in July, as the local economy remained in the doldrums and a rming of the Rand in the latter part of the... Read More

Global: Viva Italia! US equities continued to advance in May, with earnings and economic data providing a buffer against the machinations of President Trump and his continued trade tariff rhetoric. The Trump administration confirmed it would implement punitive trade tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU,and also withdrew from the Iranian nuclear accord.The threat of a potential disruption to international trade did rattle the markets, but the robustness of economic growth data negated the overall impact. Read the full article Domestic: A new dawn? In line with the majority of global equity markets the FTSE/JSE All Share Index experienced a torrid May,declining -3.5% led by sharp falls in retail and financial shares. Disappointing corporate earnings reports also helped create a negative market attitude. The FTSE/JSE Financials Index declined -6.3% largely as a result of Rand... Read More