The Rand – 1st Quarter March 2021
The rand was mostly flat over the quarter marginally weakening 1.14% amid vaccine optimism checked by inflationary concerns. This is after the rand experienced a strong gain in the previous quarter as seen by the sharp downturn in the blue line, in the graph below (exchange rate) bringing it close to its long-term trend as indicated by the orange line. Given the uncertain economic environment that South Africa finds itself in, it is likely that the currency exchange rate will remain volatile.
The Rand – 4th Quarter 2021
The rand weakened (-6.2%) over the quarter, in line with the weaker global emerging market sentiment. Over the longer term and on a simplistic basis, the South African rand seems to be slightly above fair value relative to the US dollar as indicated below. USD/ZAR Monthly Exchange rate – 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2021 Global foreign exchange rates – Currencies against the US dollar, YTD change
The Rand – 4th Quarter December 2020
The rand continued to strengthen over the quarter as an increase in risk capital on the back of an uptick in investor sentiment was experienced. This rand gain (or dollar weakness?) can be seen by the sharp downturn in the blue line (exchange rate) bringing it close to its long-term trend as indicated by the orange line. Given the uncertain economic environment that South Africa finds itself in, it is likely that the currency exchange rate will remain volatile.
The Rand – 3rd Quarter September 2020
The rand recovered from its highs over the quarter though remained oversold relative to its long run trend as indicated by the orange line. Given the uncertain economic environment that we find ourselves in, we are likely to see the currency exchange rate remain volatile.
