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Market Update

GTC EB Trendline – March 2017

Global: Growth returns A strengthening global economy, coupled with the potential pro-growth effects of President Trump’s fiscal stimulus plans, continued to drive markets in the first quarter of 2017. Global equities performed strongly with the MSCI World Equity Index returning 6.53% in Dollar terms. Likewise the MSCI Emerging Markets Index provided robust returns over the quarter returning a spectacular 11.49% in Dollar terms. Unfortunately this stellar performance did not translate into our local equity market which was beset by controversial political developments. Global bond markets were impacted by the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% in March, as well as an indication from the European Central Bank that it foresaw less need for an accommodative policy going forward but that it would maintain the current stimulus package until the end of 2017. What became evident...
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GTC WM Trendline – March 2017

Global: Growth returns A strengthening global economy, coupled with the potential pro-growth effects of President Trump’s fiscal stimulus plans, continued to drive markets in the first quarter of 2017. Global equities performed strongly with the MSCI World Equity Index returning 6.53% in Dollar terms. Likewise the MSCI Emerging Markets Index provided robust returns over the quarter returning a spectacular 11.49% in Dollar terms. Unfortunately this stellar performance did not translate into our local equity market which was beset by controversial political developments. Global bond markets were impacted by the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% in March, as well as an indication from the European Central Bank that it foresaw less need for an accommodative policy going forward but that it would maintain the current stimulus package until the end of 2017. What became evident...
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GTC EB Trendline – December 2016

Global: The gamble of global fiscal stimulus. The year 2016 began with a shaky start with risk assets selling off across the board, oil declining to $28 a barrel and investor concerns focusing on the possibility of a significant Yuan devaluation. World trade remained pedestrian and in spite of liquidity being freely available, the world economic engine continued to chug along. The one spark of hope remained: the United States where green shoots of economic recovery began to appear. The two shock political events of 2016, Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US President were certainly the catalysts which helped bring about a change in the global economic outlook. Thankfully the year ended on a more positive note for developed world equity markets, with the MSCI World Equity Index returning 8.15% y/y in total return terms whilst emerging...
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GTC WM Trendline – December 2016

Global: The gamble of global fiscal stimulus. The year 2016 began with a shaky start with risk assets selling off across the board, oil declining to $28 a barrel and investor concerns focusing on the possibility of a significant Yuan devaluation. World trade remained pedestrian and in spite of liquidity being freely available, the world economic engine continued to chug along. The one spark of hope remained: the United States where green shoots of economic recovery began to appear. The two shock political events of 2016, Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US President were certainly the catalysts which helped bring about a change in the global economic outlook. Thankfully the year ended on a more positive note for developed world equity markets, with the MSCI World Equity Index returning 8.15% y/y in total return terms whilst emerging...
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GTC EB Trendline – September 2016

Global: Odds on for a December rate move In a quarter that was largely positive for global markets, volatility across both equities and fixed income was considerably lower. The MSCI World Equity Index returned 4.38% in Dollar terms over the quarter whilst the MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index returned 8.32% in Dollar terms. U.S. equities continued to improve despite expectations of an interest rate rise before year end. Information technology and consumer discretionary sectors led Eurozone equities higher. Emerging markets gained impetus largely driven by a search for yield. Bond Markets remained relatively calm after the extreme volatility that was experienced at the end of the previous quarter. With the surprise Brexit result a thing of the past, July saw markets return to stability and focus on expected moves on the part of the world’s major central banks. U.S. economic...
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GTC WM Trendline – September 2016

Global: Odds on for a December rate move In a quarter that was largely positive for global markets, volatility across both equities and fixed income was considerably lower. The MSCI World Equity Index returned 4.38% in Dollar terms over the quarter whilst the MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index returned 8.32% in Dollar terms. U.S. equities continued to improve despite expectations of an interest rate rise before year end. Information technology and consumer discretionary sectors led Eurozone equities higher. Emerging markets gained impetus largely driven by a search for yield. Bond Markets remained relatively calm after the extreme volatility that was experienced at the end of the previous quarter. With the surprise Brexit result a thing of the past, July saw markets return to stability and focus on expected moves on the part of the world’s major central banks. U.S. economic...
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GTC EB Trendline – June 2016

Global: Out wins the day Global markets began Q2 on a quietly confident note, but subsequent developments were overshadowed by the somewhat unexpected vote by the U.K. to exit the European Union. The MSCI World Index ended the quarter in positive territory returning 1.21% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned -0.32% both in US Dollar terms. U.S. markets enjoyed a positive quarter with the S&P 500 gaining 2.5%. Volatility was a key note of performance over the quarter in the wake of the U.K.’s “Brexit”. The U.S. market managed to hold onto gains that were achieved earlier in the quarter as comments by the Federal Reserve Bank, and more notably from Chairperson Janet Yellen, suggesting that any further interest rate rises were certainly on the back-burner for the moment. Macroeconomic data coming out of the U.S. in May continued to show improvement with the S&P 500 advancing 1.8% for the month. The revised first quarter GDP...
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GTC WM Trendline – June 2016

Global: Out wins the day Global markets began Q2 on a quietly confident note, but subsequent developments were overshadowed by the somewhat unexpected vote by the U.K. to exit the European Union. The MSCI World Index ended the quarter in positive territory returning 1.21% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned -0.32% both in US Dollar terms. U.S. markets enjoyed a positive quarter with the S&P 500 gaining 2.5%. Volatility was a key note of performance over the quarter in the wake of the U.K.’s “Brexit”. The U.S. market managed to hold onto gains that were achieved earlier in the quarter as comments by the Federal Reserve Bank, and more notably from Chairperson Janet Yellen, suggesting that any further interest rate rises were certainly on the back-burner for the moment. Macroeconomic data coming out of the U.S. in May continued to show improvement with the S&P 500 advancing 1.8% for the month. The revised first quarter GDP number,...
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GTC WM Trendline – March 2016

Global: The proverbial yo-yo The first three months of 2016 saw global equities following an almost V-shaped pattern with stocks declining sharply up to mid-February and rebounding significantly at quarter end to close virtually flat in Dollar terms with the MSCI World Index reflecting a decline of 0.19 %. Emerging markets followed a similar pattern but were able to outperform their developed market peers by returning a positive 5.6% for the quarter. In the U.S. the market was spurred on by forecasts that further interest rate rises were being deferred. This was after Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen reported to Congress in February that volatility in global financial markets could impact negatively on U.S. economic growth which was reiterated in the report of the Federal Open Markets Committee in March. This sentiment was further strengthened at a later speech at...
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GTC EB Trendline – March 2016

Global: The proverbial yo-yo The first three months of 2016 saw global equities following an almost V-shaped pattern with stocks declining sharply up to mid-February and rebounding significantly at quarter end to close virtually flat in Dollar terms with the MSCI World Index reflecting a decline of 0.19 %. Emerging markets followed a similar pattern but were able to outperform their developed market peers by returning a positive 5.6% for the quarter. In the U.S. the market was spurred on by forecasts that further interest rate rises were being deferred. This was after Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen reported to Congress in February that volatility in global financial markets could impact negatively on U.S. economic growth which was reiterated in the report of the Federal Open Markets Committee in March. This sentiment was further strengthened at a later speech at...
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