GTC EB Trendline – June 2016
Global: Out wins the day
Global markets began Q2 on a quietly confident note, but subsequent developments were overshadowed by the somewhat unexpected vote by the U.K. to exit the European Union. The MSCI World Index ended the quarter in positive territory returning 1.21% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned -0.32% both in US Dollar terms.
U.S. markets enjoyed a positive quarter with the S&P 500 gaining 2.5%. Volatility was a key note of performance over the quarter in the wake of the U.K.’s “Brexit”. The U.S. market managed to hold onto gains that were achieved earlier in the quarter as comments by the Federal Reserve Bank, and more notably from Chairperson Janet Yellen, suggesting that any further interest rate rises were certainly on the back-burner for the moment.
Macroeconomic data coming out of the U.S. in May continued to show improvement with the S&P 500 advancing 1.8% for the month. The revised first quarter GDP number, up from 0.5% to 0.8%, allayed any fear’s surrounding the sustainability and durability of the improved economic growth. The slew of positive and better than expected data lent credence to the possibility of further interest rate rises with a concomitant recovery in Dollar strength.
